Post by Exe on Apr 30, 2006 12:32:20 GMT -5
Heres a little something i wrote. It is pretty unbiased for me. Discuss. Flaming will be deleted with a vengenance! Also, i want discussion, not random, this is better, that is better, explain WHY!!!
Recently I’ve been viewing posts on the wonderful naming of Nintendo's next gen console (....) and the exclamations of joy from Sony and MS fans (notice i said "fans" not "fanboys" lets be nice!).
I sit with astonishment reading the arguments stating that the 360 and PS3 are going to thrash the Wii yet the Wii is trying to rope in another market! If no one can see that the biggest threat to MS and Sony is each other you must be blind. The Wii is attempting to use innovation and the non gamer market to get sales (along with its fan base of course). Yet the 360 and PS3 are in complete direct competition.
To pre-emptively sum up, i think that the 360 will MOST likely when this generation. With the Wii holding second and the PS3 dragging up the rear. Now i can already feel the horror and willingness to reply with flames at my apparent stupidity, but please, hear me out. I hope im not as stupid as you all currently believe i am!
Nintendo
Well, the big N hasn’t really done well in recent years. I have to say though, the GC seemed to do much better than the 64.
I have to say though, the current opinion on their marketing strategy being they are trying to alienate core gamers is stupid. Really stupid. It would be atrocious business sense to even think about doing it. They’re trying to lure in more consumers with a system that is appealing to EVERYONE, notice how everyone includes the old fan base. Here is a mediocre analogy i just thought of: Desktops and laptops. Do you think that laptops are a miserable failure? (If so, go away). They aren’t. They're MORE expensive than an equal spec desktop. So what benefits do they have? Bar portability which doesn’t count in the console market unless you look at the Xbox. Its more innovative and trendy. I can see this being the way the Wii goes. I think if all goes well, it shouldn’t suffer from this new way marketing and development. The name choice, which i found both funny and horrifying is certainly a risk. Yet as some people are trying to get through, people are talking about it, which is good. The phase at the moment, is everyone’s little immature side laughing. Is wee itself funny? Well no. People will get over it if they can see past there own immaturity. Its kind of growing on me now, like the plague. My prediction has the Wii pulling up second. I think this is probably a good estimate. With the new approach, virtual console and a stable company, second seems achievable. I also think, the Wii will be released before the PS3. There may only be a month in it, but the big N knows not to let Sony get out too much before them again.
MS
My first pick here. Am i a fan of MS? No. If i got given an xbox or 360, i would most definitely trade it in. That’s just my bias though. My prediction here though is slightly less solid as my Nintendo one. Why? Because i think that 1st and third will be the 360 and PS3 in one arrangement or the other. The 360 has a big lead. Its not using it amazingly well at the moment but a head start is an advantage. By the time the PS3 is released, the 360 will have a foot in the door. By this i mean, most of the "new console glitches" should be ironed out and manufacturing costs will be lower. Hence i can definitely see a smart move for MS be to lower the price in reaction to the PS3. I doubt it will be a dramatic drop but I think there will be one. MS can easily afford it. I may not like bill gates, but i wouldn’t mind having his wallet!
Sony
Currently the biggest and most influential game console creator. So surely they have this in the bag? Err…no. The rest of the Sony corporation has been seeing bad bad times recently. The PS section makes a profit but is not really enough to counter the huge screw ups that are the other departments. First quarter this year: $581 million loss. That’s quite a few pennies. Also, the game department that usually rakes in about $80 million profit, will be seeing a $860 million launch cost for the PS3. Im not sure if that includes loss per console for a set period or not. Basically, they have been laying off staff and closing factories etc... to save money. They have saved quite a bit and have closed off quite a few dead product lines. Apparently (take this with a pinch of salt), Sony would of been in trouble last year had they not sold off subsidiary companies. A source of income they cant obviously get again. If it wasn’t for this little company issue above, i would without a doubt bet the PS3 would win.
It should be much better than the 360 in practically every department. Game quality, specs, brand loyalty and the many other factors. In fact, I think the PS3 may well out sell the 360 for quite a while. It all comes down to whether Sony as a company can keep its head over water. If it does, i can see it taking top spot and the 360 will fall behind the Wii because most 360 customers will get a PS3 and most likely prefer it. I fear the that not as likely as Sony having to do something drastic financially to stay afloat. Worse case scenario for Sony is if they split form the parent company to keep itself going. (Which I imagine would be the most likely occurrence if the company is going down). That would make them a much smaller company with more delicate financial handling required. Which would most likely see them in troubled waters.
I honestly think, in summary the best console order in terms of how good the consoles themselves will be:
1. PS3
2. Wii
3. 360
I think the Wii will be much better than the 360 with the PS3 just snatching a true first from the Wii.
So people could wonder why i predict the worst console in my opinion to do the best? Well, because its not all about the consoles. MS' deep pockets will help them no matter what. If the PS3 goes down or starts looking iffy, i can see its fans moving to the 360. So far, I’ve predicted the Wii doing well, not astoundingly superb, just well.
The 360 and PS3 can do well. It could do really amazingly but they are limited by the market they are aiming at. The Wii on the other hand, COULD, with its cheap cost and new marketing plan actually do what its supposed to. Rope in non gamers. This is entirely optimistic for Nintendo, hence why i left it out of my prediction. Yet, if they managed to tap this market properly, i can see them returning to the kind of dominance they've held in the past.
IF YOU READ NO OTHER PART OF THIS POST, READ THIS LAST PART AT LEAST!!!
In summary, i think my first predication is most likely, ps3 will suffer due to its parent company. 360 will take a large chunk of the Sony fans with the Wii getting the rest. Market share predictions being: 360 40% Wii 35% and PS3 25%.
Second most likely is, Sony pull through, slaughter the 360 and the Wii. IE market share of about Sony 50% Wii 30% and 360 20%.
Third, either of the above with Wii failing horribly:
1st 60% 2nd 25% Wii 15%
Most unlikely, (the one where Nintendo actually get something right and get the market they aim for) Wii 45% PS3 30% 360 25%
(Hopes all % add up right!)
Well that’s my predictions. Have fun guys and girl.
Recently I’ve been viewing posts on the wonderful naming of Nintendo's next gen console (....) and the exclamations of joy from Sony and MS fans (notice i said "fans" not "fanboys" lets be nice!).
I sit with astonishment reading the arguments stating that the 360 and PS3 are going to thrash the Wii yet the Wii is trying to rope in another market! If no one can see that the biggest threat to MS and Sony is each other you must be blind. The Wii is attempting to use innovation and the non gamer market to get sales (along with its fan base of course). Yet the 360 and PS3 are in complete direct competition.
To pre-emptively sum up, i think that the 360 will MOST likely when this generation. With the Wii holding second and the PS3 dragging up the rear. Now i can already feel the horror and willingness to reply with flames at my apparent stupidity, but please, hear me out. I hope im not as stupid as you all currently believe i am!
Nintendo
Well, the big N hasn’t really done well in recent years. I have to say though, the GC seemed to do much better than the 64.
I have to say though, the current opinion on their marketing strategy being they are trying to alienate core gamers is stupid. Really stupid. It would be atrocious business sense to even think about doing it. They’re trying to lure in more consumers with a system that is appealing to EVERYONE, notice how everyone includes the old fan base. Here is a mediocre analogy i just thought of: Desktops and laptops. Do you think that laptops are a miserable failure? (If so, go away). They aren’t. They're MORE expensive than an equal spec desktop. So what benefits do they have? Bar portability which doesn’t count in the console market unless you look at the Xbox. Its more innovative and trendy. I can see this being the way the Wii goes. I think if all goes well, it shouldn’t suffer from this new way marketing and development. The name choice, which i found both funny and horrifying is certainly a risk. Yet as some people are trying to get through, people are talking about it, which is good. The phase at the moment, is everyone’s little immature side laughing. Is wee itself funny? Well no. People will get over it if they can see past there own immaturity. Its kind of growing on me now, like the plague. My prediction has the Wii pulling up second. I think this is probably a good estimate. With the new approach, virtual console and a stable company, second seems achievable. I also think, the Wii will be released before the PS3. There may only be a month in it, but the big N knows not to let Sony get out too much before them again.
MS
My first pick here. Am i a fan of MS? No. If i got given an xbox or 360, i would most definitely trade it in. That’s just my bias though. My prediction here though is slightly less solid as my Nintendo one. Why? Because i think that 1st and third will be the 360 and PS3 in one arrangement or the other. The 360 has a big lead. Its not using it amazingly well at the moment but a head start is an advantage. By the time the PS3 is released, the 360 will have a foot in the door. By this i mean, most of the "new console glitches" should be ironed out and manufacturing costs will be lower. Hence i can definitely see a smart move for MS be to lower the price in reaction to the PS3. I doubt it will be a dramatic drop but I think there will be one. MS can easily afford it. I may not like bill gates, but i wouldn’t mind having his wallet!
Sony
Currently the biggest and most influential game console creator. So surely they have this in the bag? Err…no. The rest of the Sony corporation has been seeing bad bad times recently. The PS section makes a profit but is not really enough to counter the huge screw ups that are the other departments. First quarter this year: $581 million loss. That’s quite a few pennies. Also, the game department that usually rakes in about $80 million profit, will be seeing a $860 million launch cost for the PS3. Im not sure if that includes loss per console for a set period or not. Basically, they have been laying off staff and closing factories etc... to save money. They have saved quite a bit and have closed off quite a few dead product lines. Apparently (take this with a pinch of salt), Sony would of been in trouble last year had they not sold off subsidiary companies. A source of income they cant obviously get again. If it wasn’t for this little company issue above, i would without a doubt bet the PS3 would win.
It should be much better than the 360 in practically every department. Game quality, specs, brand loyalty and the many other factors. In fact, I think the PS3 may well out sell the 360 for quite a while. It all comes down to whether Sony as a company can keep its head over water. If it does, i can see it taking top spot and the 360 will fall behind the Wii because most 360 customers will get a PS3 and most likely prefer it. I fear the that not as likely as Sony having to do something drastic financially to stay afloat. Worse case scenario for Sony is if they split form the parent company to keep itself going. (Which I imagine would be the most likely occurrence if the company is going down). That would make them a much smaller company with more delicate financial handling required. Which would most likely see them in troubled waters.
I honestly think, in summary the best console order in terms of how good the consoles themselves will be:
1. PS3
2. Wii
3. 360
I think the Wii will be much better than the 360 with the PS3 just snatching a true first from the Wii.
So people could wonder why i predict the worst console in my opinion to do the best? Well, because its not all about the consoles. MS' deep pockets will help them no matter what. If the PS3 goes down or starts looking iffy, i can see its fans moving to the 360. So far, I’ve predicted the Wii doing well, not astoundingly superb, just well.
The 360 and PS3 can do well. It could do really amazingly but they are limited by the market they are aiming at. The Wii on the other hand, COULD, with its cheap cost and new marketing plan actually do what its supposed to. Rope in non gamers. This is entirely optimistic for Nintendo, hence why i left it out of my prediction. Yet, if they managed to tap this market properly, i can see them returning to the kind of dominance they've held in the past.
IF YOU READ NO OTHER PART OF THIS POST, READ THIS LAST PART AT LEAST!!!
In summary, i think my first predication is most likely, ps3 will suffer due to its parent company. 360 will take a large chunk of the Sony fans with the Wii getting the rest. Market share predictions being: 360 40% Wii 35% and PS3 25%.
Second most likely is, Sony pull through, slaughter the 360 and the Wii. IE market share of about Sony 50% Wii 30% and 360 20%.
Third, either of the above with Wii failing horribly:
1st 60% 2nd 25% Wii 15%
Most unlikely, (the one where Nintendo actually get something right and get the market they aim for) Wii 45% PS3 30% 360 25%
(Hopes all % add up right!)
Well that’s my predictions. Have fun guys and girl.
